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Regulators can't agree on what the real systemic threat was from AIG

Article: "The Latest AIG Story", WSJ

Yesterday I posted some skepticism on the story that was being told about how a bankrupt AIG would have caused a collapse of our financial system.  This morning the Wall Street Journal raises the same question in an Editorial piece.  They begin with the following question:
Will regulators ever coherently explain why AIG could not be allowed to go bankrupt in September of 2008?

Great question.  If fact it is THE question.  And the WSJ goes on to say:
This topic probably deserves another hearing on its own.

Ya think?!

So, the story told yesterday differs from the one that was told previously:

At yesterday's House hearing, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and predecessor Hank Paulson said they didn't bail out AIG to save its derivatives counterparties. Instead, said Mr. Geithner, the now-famous 100-cents-on-the-dollar buyouts of credit default swap contracts were necessary to prevent a further downgrade of AIG by credit-ratings agencies.

In other words, the danger wasn't to Goldman Sachs and Societe General and the other institutions that bought Credit Default Swap insurance from AIG.  It was the individual holders of insurance policies, like you and me, that would be hurt by the downgrade of AIG by credit-ratings agencies.

But this fear does not hold water because, as the editorial points out, the US had already seized AIG:
Remember, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where Mr. Geithner was president, had by that time already seized AIG. We're guessing that a ratings agency is pretty comfortable with the creditworthiness of a firm 79.9%-owned by Uncle Sam. Yet Mr. Geithner is saying that the same credit raters that applied triple-A ratings to tranches of junk mortgages somehow got the yips when the world's most respected borrower was standing behind AIG.

OK - holding this credit-rating red herring aside, what was the danger that a downgrade would bring:
Yesterday, however, Messrs. Geithner and Paulson went further than ever in stating that the real systemic risk was to AIG's heavily regulated insurance businesses.

So the danger was not in the unregulated derivatives business, but in the regulated insurance business.  Is that so?

Their testimony directly contradicts that offered to Congress by former New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo, who was AIG's principal insurance regulator at the time.

Last year Mr. Dinallo told the Senate that "The main reason why the federal government decided to rescue AIG was not because of its insurance companies."

Hmmm.  Very interesting contradiction.  Maybe someone should actually try and sort this out.  Maybe Congress - who authorized the money - should try and understand if they were duped.  

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Filed under  //   AIG   Congress   Financial System   Geithner   Goldman Sachs  

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Hank Paulson says the sky was falling. Do you believe him?

Article: "Lawmakers, AIG's Rescuers Spar at Hearing", WSJ

In Henry Paulson's testimony today he said that whatever was done last year for AIG was necessary:

"I believe we would have seen a complete collapse of our financial system and unemployment easily could have risen to the 25% level reached in the Great Depression," Mr. Paulson said.

I wish just once some Congressman would ask him to explain how this would have happened.  They always let him get away with making that statement without challenging it.  I don't understand how the dominos were lined up in the AIG case such that the whole financial system would have collapsed.

Let me try and reconstruct the scenario.  AIG is an insurance company (not a bank).  It sold insurance to many of the banks who bought into the CDOs that were packaged up by Fannie Mae and the Wall Street Investment Banks.  The insurance was to pay off if these mortgage backed securities did not pay off on the cash flow they were designed to offer.  This had nothing to do with the mortgages themselves or the homeowners or the banks that wrote the mortgages.  This was a big party to big party insurance policy that AIG did not calculate the correct premiums and reserves on.

So the CDOs were shit.  And when the shit hit the fan the owners went to AIG to collect on the insurance policy they had purchase.  The problem is that AIG did not have the assets to pay off on the claims so they were going to have to declare bankruptcy.  This bankruptcy is what the Federal Government is saying would have collapsed the financial system and so they could not allow this to happen.

So who would get hurt if AIG went into bankruptcy?  I can tell you who would NOT get hurt:  all the individual policy holders of Life Insurance and other individual insurance that AIG offered.  That is because these were regulated by the States and there were reserve funds which were under State control to be used in this kind situation.  So it is just the other big banks and institutions who would be affected by the bankruptcy.

But bankruptcy does not mean that there is no money to be paid out.  It just means that there is not enough to pay 100% of the debt owed.  So this means that the counter-parties (Goldman, et. al.) would get some money paid out on there policy.

So where is the "complete collapse of our financial system"?  I don't see it.  Would it be painful?  Yes.  Would it be deadly?  I don't see how.  This whole thing has always smacked of the same fear mongering that got us into Iraq ("Weapons of Mass Destruction") and enabled domestic spying through FISA ("There are Terrorists who are planning to kill us") and many many other instances that turn out to be trumped up flat out lies.

The next time someone says that the whole financial system was about to collapse ask them to explain how that would happen.  I am pretty sure they can't tell you.  Nor could Hank Paulson.

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Filed under  //   AIG   Financial System   Goldman Sachs   Hank Paulson  

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Matt Taibbi - Taibblog – There’s always room for Goldman Sachs (at the SEC) - True/Slant

There’s always room for Goldman Sachs (at the SEC)

The Securities and Exchange Commission hired a 29-year-old former employee in Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s business intelligence unit as the first chief operating officer in the agency’s enforcement division, according to people familiar with the decision.

via SEC unit hires ex-Goldman Sachs worker as chief operating officer — latimes.com.

Could life get any better? Really, aren’t things just about as good as they can possibly get at this point?

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House Panel Exempts Over 8,000 Banks From Oversight - NYTimes.com

Bowing to political pressure from community bankers, the House Financial Services Committee approved an exemption on Thursday for more than 98 percent of the nation’s banks from oversight by a new agency created to protect consumers from abusive or deceptive credit cards, mortgages and other loans.

Huh?!

So here is the deal: Congress is going to pass legislation creating a new bureaucracy to protect us consumers from bad banks and credit card companies. And the first thing they do is exempt 8000 of the nations 8,200 banks from being reviewed by the new agency.

So rather than hold the existing regulators feet to the fire (did anybody in the SEC get fired for missing Bernie Madoff all those years?) they decide to do what the federal government always does - get bigger. But before they actually grow a new arm they hollow it out. This is an amazing Kabuki dance to watch.

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Frustrating Michael Moore | Foundation for Economic Education

Frustrating Michael Moore

If Michael Moore would study a little political economy he might turn into a potent champion of individual liberty.

As we see in Moore’s new movie, Capitalism: A Love Story, Moore is offended by some truly offensive things: banks engaging in wild speculation without concern for the risk, taxpayer bailouts for banks and other businesses, cozy relations between Wall Street and Washington, politicians getting favors from companies that want benefits from government, and big institutions pushing less powerful individuals around. True, he’s offended by some inoffensive things as well, such as the cut in the 90 percent top income-tax rate nearly 30 years ago. But by and large, what he rails against should be railed against.

Had he called his movie State Capitalism: A Love Story, I might be applauding (with some reservations). But he’s targeting the more ambiguous “capitalism,” which he uses interchangeably with “the free market.” He can be forgiven for this, however. Most people would say that the current U.S. economic system is capitalist. Moore has probably heard that all his life. He’d hear if he watched a Fox financial program. Would Ben Stein or Lawrence Kudlow disagree? Moore has also heard Republican politicians, George W. Bush, for example, praise the existing system, with all its deep government interventions, as capitalist. He did this even as he and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, former chief of Wall Street behemoth Goldman Sachs, stampeded Congress into passing the $700 billion TARP bailout last year. Moore takes such people at their word: The free market is capitalism, and capitalism is what we have today.

Can we blame him for thinking this way?

Yes, it’s sloppy thinking, and had he been more curious and read beyond the confines of “Progressive” literature, he could have gotten the straight story. But many knowledgeable advocates of the free market contribute to the confusion by exhibiting what Kevin Carson calls “vulgar libertarianism,” or what Roderick Long describes as “the tendency to treat the case for the free market as though it justified various unlovely features of actually existing corporatist society.” How often have you heard a free-market advocate condemn pro-business intervention in one breath, then defend existing dominant corporations in the next — as though they did not arise in the interventionist environment just condemned? Pro-market is not the same as pro-business. If some market advocates don’t understand that, why should Moore? Vulgar libertarianism is a disconnect that makes the free-market philosophy look like a corporate apologetic. It’s done incalculable damage to the cause of freedom, in part by alienating potential allies. Who knows, maybe even Michael Moore.

Aversion to Profit

This may go a long way in explaining Moore’s aversion to profit — at least other people’s. He associates profit with business, which he associates with (state) capitalism. So for him, profit per se is suspect. But he should see a problem here. Does he think he’s exploiting moviegoers when his production company ends up with a profit? Do the co-ops and worker-owned firms he loves exploit their customers when they sell their products for more than their money costs? When two people barter, are they mutually exploiting each other because each gets more value than he gives up? To consistently oppose profit, one would have to oppose all human action, since every action aims at a surplus of subjective benefit over subjective opportunity cost.

Cornered like this, Moore might say he’s only the against excessive profits that capitalist market power permits. But now we’re back where we started. To the extent that intervention hampers competition by erecting barriers to entry — which is the usual effect, intended or not — protected firms are free to charge higher prices and reap more profits than would have been the case in an open market. Corporate power and privilege derive from political power and can’t exist without it. In contrast to existing capitalism, the truly free market would have no legal barriers to competitive entry, assuring that prices and returns are economically justified and not the fruits of privilege. Strictly speaking, entrepreneurial profit in a true market gets competed away because the very process of capturing them reveals valuable information to others and invites imitation. It takes innovation and efficiency — that is, superior service to consumers — to create new profits. Only the State permits business to make profits by withholding benefits from consumers.

But Moore doesn’t know this. What he “knows” is that the choice is between the current corrupt system — and it is corrupt — and some vaguely defined scheme of control by benevolent politicians, which he calls socialism and democracy.

In his movie Moore expresses affection for socialism, but he’s not clear what he means. He never advocates collectivization of the means of production or the abolition of markets. Instead he suggests that socialism means workers having a say in how the companies they work for are run. But why assume that’s anti-free market? He praises worker-owned companies and notes that hundreds of them exist in the United States today. He might be surprised to learn that these things are entirely compatible with the free market. In fact, it’s a perfectly libertarian intuition to abhor being subject to the arbitrary whim of anyone — yes, even a private employer. If government regulatory and tax obstacles to new competition and self-employment did not exist, workers would have their maximum bargaining power and widest array of alternatives. I imagine we’d see more departures from the traditional firm. People used to get their “social insurance” from mutual aid societies. Maybe in a true free market, we’d see a bigger role for the employment counterpart to these public, yet not governmental, organizations.

What would Moore think about a system in which no one could collude with politicians to legally plunder the rest of us for their own benefit and everyone was free to enter into any cooperative arrangements to produce and offer goods to others in voluntary exchange? Michael, that’s the free market!

FDR’s Second Bill of Rights

Of course, Moore naively looks to government to provide things. His movie laments that FDR died before he could see his Second Bill of Rights enacted. Roosevelt wanted government to guarantee everyone a good education, job, home, health care, and so on. Has Moore ever wondered where government would get the resources for this? He can’t really believe that somewhere there’s a massive pot of collective wealth waiting to be distributed. He must realize that the tax system would provide the money. But how can he not know that if government appears to penalize wealth creation with confiscation, less wealth will be created?

Moore is unaware that he commits the “Nirvana fallacy.” This is the erroneous idea that our choice is between the admittedly imperfect world we’re bound to live in if government leaves us alone and an imagined utopia in which benevolent and all-wise rulers oversee and regulate everything. Of course that is not the choice. Moore’s preferred system, whatever he calls it, would be run by individuals whose insight into the public interest would be no sharper and whose motives no purer than other people’s. However, since they would wield political power — which is the legal authority to compel obedience– they would be far more dangerous than anyone in a free market could ever be. He knows how corrupt politicians are. Why does he think different people would run things in his utopia? Does he really want them in charge of everyone’s job, education, health care, housing, pension, and the rest? It’s hard to understand why he isn’t uncomfortable with the idea of the people being tenants and employees of the State.

Whether he realizes it or not, Moore favors a system in which an elite necessarily would make critical decisions for the rest of us. He’d be incredulous to hear that, but if he ever comes to understand it, libertarians might end up with an unlikely ally.

Sheldon Richman is the editor of The Freeman and "In brief." He is a contributor to The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics.

Nice piece on where Michael Moore errs. By confusing the current State Capitalism, or Corporatism, with a Free Market he tars and feathers the wrong villain.

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Filed under  //   Financial System   Free Market   Michael Moore  

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