Gay Old Party: Former Bush Campaign Chair comes out of the closet
Strategic Marketing Dude. Aging guitar hacker. I have been known to howl at the moon on occasion.
Currently working on my Social Media Strategy chops at Consensio.
Two really interesting charts here. The first shows that the US borrows 45% of all the money the world's governments borrow and then takes that money and spends 46% of all the money the world's governments spend on their military.
I'll admit, This story flew below my radar. Apparently, President Obama announced last September his new policy for missile defense in Europe. He began his statement this way:
As Commander-in-Chief, I'm committed to doing everything in my power to advance our national security. And that includes strengthening our defenses against any and all threats to our people, our troops, and our friends and allies around the world.
... we have updated our intelligence assessment of Iran's missile programs, which emphasizes the threat posed by Iran's short- and medium-range missiles, which are capable of reaching Europe.
Apparently, some of our crack analysts have information (which we can not share), which in some scenario (which we will not describe), "emphasizes the threat" (won't define what this means) against Europe (not the US).
...we have made specific and proven advances in our missile defense technology, particularly with regard to land- and sea-based interceptors and the sensors that support them. Our new approach will, therefore, deploy technologies that are proven and cost-effective and that counter the current threat, and do so sooner than the previous program. Because our approach will be phased and adaptive, we will retain the flexibility to adjust and enhance our defenses as the threat and technology continue to evolve.
Oooh...I get chills when we have advances in our technology. And our approach will be "phased and adaptive", whatever the hell that means. So, it appears that some defense contractor sold the Chief on some new technology that phases and adapts over a long period of time. Gotta get some of that!
Together we are committed to a broad range of cooperative efforts to strengthen our collective defense, and we are bound by the solemn commitment of NATO's Article V that an attack on one is an attack on all.
It is a good deal for Europe, which is largely getting the protection for free.
This is the statement that the Anti-Defamation League issued on July 28 regarding the proposed Mosque near Ground Zero in NYC:
New York, NY, July 28, 2010 ... The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today issued the following statement regarding the proposed Islamic Center near Ground Zero in Manhattan:We regard freedom of religion as a cornerstone of the American democracy, and that freedom must include the right of all Americans – Christian, Jewish, Muslim, and other faiths – to build community centers and houses of worship.We categorically reject appeals to bigotry on the basis of religion, and condemn those whose opposition to this proposed Islamic Center is a manifestation of such bigotry.However, there are understandably strong passions and keen sensitivities surrounding the World Trade Center site. We are ever mindful of the tragedy which befell our nation there, the pain we all still feel – and especially the anguish of the families and friends of those who were killed on September 11, 2001.The controversy which has emerged regarding the building of an Islamic Center at this location is counterproductive to the healing process. Therefore, under these unique circumstances, we believe the City of New York would be better served if an alternative location could be found.In recommending that a different location be found for the Islamic Center, we are mindful that some legitimate questions have been raised about who is providing the funding to build it, and what connections, if any, its leaders might have with groups whose ideologies stand in contradiction to our shared values. These questions deserve a response, and we hope those backing the project will be transparent and forthcoming. But regardless of how they respond, the issue at stake is a broader one.Proponents of the Islamic Center may have every right to build at this site, and may even have chosen the site to send a positive message about Islam. The bigotry some have expressed in attacking them is unfair, and wrong. But ultimately this is not a question of rights, but a question of what is right. In our judgment, building an Islamic Center in the shadow of the World Trade Center will cause some victims more pain – unnecessarily – and that is not right.
Q: The new edition of The Black Swan includes what you call "10 principles for a Black-Swan robust society." One of them is: "Citizens should not depend on financial assets as a repository of value and should not rely on fallible 'expert' advice for their retirement." Can you explain what you mean?
Taleb: The problem is that citizens are being led to invest in securities they don't understand by people who themselves don't quite understand the risks involved. The stock market is probably the best thing in the world, but the true risks of the stock market are vastly greater than the representations. And this leads to extremely strange situations in which, say, someone has a bakery, is extremely paranoid about suppliers, very careful about risks, and protects his business with appropriate insurance. Then, at some point, he puts his $122,000 in savings in a fund that he knows nothing about, based on risk measures he knows nothing about, in companies very few people know much about.
People use "risk measures," but you're really not measuring anything like you measure temperature or distance. You are making a speculative assessment of a future event. That's not measuring, that's estimating. And as we saw with BP (BP), with the banking system, and with Toyota (TM), companies themselves are hiding risks from the security analysts. They're cutting corners. Companies have a tendency to hide risks.
So someone extremely careful and prudent in the management of his own affairs will be completely careless with the half of his savings invested in the stock market. I'm saying: Don't use the stock market as a repository of value. It has vastly more risks than you think.
What should you do with your savings?
We have this culture of financialization. People think they need to make money with their savings rather with their own business. So you end up with dentists who are more traders than dentists. A dentist should drill teeth and use whatever he does in the stock market for entertainment.
People should have three sources of variation in their income. The first one is their own business that they understand rather well. Focus on that. The second one is their savings. Make sure you preserve them. The third portion is the speculative portion: Whatever you are willing to lose, you can invest in whatever you want.
In the second category—preservation of value—you should have the consciousness that there is something called inflation. You should avoid some classes of investments that are very fragile.
What are are potential sources of fragility or danger that you're keeping an eye on?
The massive one is government deficits. As an analogy: You often have planes landing two hours late. In some cases, when you have volcanos, you can land two or three weeks late. How often have you landed two hours early? Never. It's the same with deficits. The errors tend to go one way rather than the other. When I wrote The Black Swan, I realized there was a huge bias in the way people estimate deficits and make forecasts. Typically things costs more, which is chronic. Governments that try to shoot for a surplus hardly ever reach it.
The problem is getting runaway. It's becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It's very nonlinear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what broke [convicted financier Bernard] Madoff is going to break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers.
I think some people get confused about Black Swans and think you're saying that you can't predict what's going to happen. But you can see some big consequential events coming down the road.
A Black Swan for the turkey is not a Black Swan for the butcher. For someone very naïve, some events may be Black Swans. For someone warned, they're not going to be Black Swans if you know they can be possible and you hedge against them.
I have not paid a lot of attention to the Shirley Sherrod controversy. But if you watch the unedited version, and then see the trumped one that started the scandal it will make your blood boil. First, at Andrew Breitbart (and his cohorts at Fox) for the "lying liars that lie" approach to "journalism". Next to the Obama Administration for not investigating these charges and standing up to this nonsense. And lastly to the NAACP, who initially condemned Ms Sherrod when they should have known better: this speech in question was given at an NAACP event.
